The oil tanker M/T Persian Glory was just two hours into its passage through the Strait of Hormuz when the first drone struck. It was 3:47 a.m. local time on Monday. The crew saw a flash, then heard the roar. Within minutes, a second explosion ripped through the engine room. The vessel – carrying 2 million barrels of crude – began listing to starboard.
This wasn’t an isolated incident. Over the past 72 hours, at least four commercial ships have been hit by missiles or drones near the narrow waterway, according to shipping intelligence firm Lloyd’s List. The attacks come at a particularly painful moment: traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had just reached its highest volume since the start of the U.S. war with Iran in 2023. As we reported earlier, the recovery was already teetering. Now it’s cracking.
“We’ve essentially gone from a controlled reopening to a state of near-lockdown in 48 hours,” says Captain Ahmed Al-Mansoori, a maritime security analyst at the Gulf Research Center in Dubai. “Insurers are doubling premiums. Some operators are refusing to send crews through the strait at all. This isn’t a disruption – it’s a regression.”
A Hard-Won Recovery in Jeopardy
Let’s rewind a bit. After the U.S.-Iran conflict erupted in early 2023, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz – the chokepoint for roughly 20% of global oil supply – collapsed by nearly 60%. Tankers diverted around the Cape of Good Hope. Insurance costs skyrocketed. Oil prices briefly touched $130 a barrel.
But by late 2024, a fragile truce had taken hold. Iranian coastal defense batteries stopped targeting commercial vessels. U.S. Navy patrols increased. Slowly, shipping companies began creeping back. By February 2025, daily transits had recovered to about 85% of pre-war levels, according to data from Vortexa. That was the highest since the war began. Executives at major shipping lines started talking about a “normalization” of trade routes. Even Reuters reported that Iranian officials had privately signaled they would not target commercial vessels as long as the truce held.
That truce just shattered. The new attacks – a mix of one-way attack drones and anti-ship missiles – were coordinated and precise. One vessel was struck near the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas. Another near the Omani island of Masirah. The BBC notes that the Strait of Hormuz is just 33 kilometers wide at its narrowest point, making it nearly impossible to avoid modern missile systems. “You’re in a narrow funnel with nowhere to hide,” says Dr. Farzad Ramezani, an energy economist at the University of Tehran. “If one side decides to shut it down, they can, at least for a while.”
The Geopolitical Powder Keg
Who’s behind the strikes? No group has claimed responsibility, but the timing and capability point to Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen, possibly in coordination with Iranian Revolutionary Guard units. The U.S. Fifth Fleet, based in Bahrain, has already deployed additional destroyers to the region. But that may not be enough.
“The Houthis have shown they can strike deep into the Persian Gulf with precision,” says Al-Mansoori. “They’ve turned asymmetric warfare into a commodity. A $50,000 drone can stop a $100 million tanker – and the whole global supply chain behind it.”
Iran’s official position remains ambiguous. State media has called the attacks “a response to continued American aggression.” But analysts suspect Iran is using proxies to test the Trump administration’s resolve while avoiding a direct confrontation. “It’s a game of pressure,” says Ramezani. “They want to raise the cost of the U.S. presence without triggering a full-blown war. And shipping is the pressure point.”
The Strait of Hormuz isn’t just about oil. It’s also a critical passage for liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Qatar, refined products from Saudi Arabia, and container ships carrying electronics, grain, and medical supplies between Asia and Europe. A sustained disruption could ripple far beyond energy markets.
What This Means for Global Markets
Oil prices jumped 6% in the first 24 hours after the attacks, with Brent crude settling at $89.70 on Tuesday. But the real fear is about duration. If the strait remains dangerous for weeks, not days, the impact compounds. Insurance premiums for war risk coverage have already soared by 400%, according to the London insurance market.
Shipping companies are facing a choice: take the risk and pay the premium, or divert around Africa – adding 10 days and $2 million in fuel costs per voyage. Most are choosing the latter. “We’re seeing a replay of the 2023 crisis, but faster,” says Maria Santos, a senior analyst at the International Transport Forum in Leipzig. “Companies learned from last time. They now have contingency plans. But the plans are expensive, and they reduce global shipping capacity by about 15% overnight.”
That reduction in capacity will hit everything. Consumer goods already caught in supply chain bottlenecks – from electronics to furniture – could face longer delivery times. And central banks, which have been celebrating inflation cooling toward 2% targets, now have a new headache. A sustained spike in energy and transport costs could reignite inflationary pressure. The Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England are all monitoring the situation closely.
“We’ve been here before,” says Santos. “But the context is different. The global economy is more fragile. Trade growth has been weak. A shock like this could tip some sectors back into contraction.”
The Road Ahead
For now, the Biden administration is pursuing a dual track: diplomatic engagement with Iran through Omani intermediaries, while simultaneously reinforcing naval presence. But the window for diplomacy is narrowing. Iran’s nuclear program continues to advance, and the political calculus in Tehran may favor brinkmanship over compromise.
For shippers and traders, the immediate priority is safety. Several major tanker operators, including Frontline and Euronav, have suspended transits through the strait until further notice. They’re advising clients to plan for a longer crisis. “This isn’t a one-week disruption,” says Al-Mansoori. “If the attacks continue, we may see a permanent rerouting of a significant portion of Middle East oil and gas. That would reshape global trade flows for years.”
The irony? Just two weeks ago, shipping stocks were rallying on hopes of a steady recovery. The same optimism that filled order books at shipyards and pushed container rates lower is now evaporating. The Strait of Hormuz is once again the world’s most dangerous waterway – and the fragile recovery of global shipping is hanging by a thread.
Frequently Asked Questions
What exactly happened in the Strait of Hormuz this week?
Multiple commercial vessels, including oil tankers and a container ship, were struck by drones and missiles while transiting the Strait of Hormuz. At least four ships were damaged. No casualties have been reported, but traffic through the strait has slowed dramatically as shipping companies suspend operations.
How will these attacks affect oil prices and inflation?
Brent crude rose 6% in the immediate aftermath. If disruptions persist, oil could climb to $95–$100 per barrel. That would raise gasoline prices and transportation costs, adding upward pressure on inflation. Central banks may delay interest rate cuts if energy costs stay elevated.
Is the shipping recovery completely derailed?
Not completely, but it’s badly damaged. Traffic through the strait had recovered to 85% of pre-war levels before the attacks. Now it could fall back to 40–50% of normal. The longer the crisis lasts, the more likely that some trade routes will be permanently rerouted, changing the economics of global shipping for the long term.