Cantor Fitzgerald Bets Big on Remitly Global (RELY) for Long-Term Growth

Is the digital remittance space finally ready to deliver the kind of returns that make Wall Street sit up and take notice? Cantor Fitzgerald certainly thinks so. The investment bank has just thrown its weight behind Remitly Global (NASDAQ: RELY), initiating coverage with an Overweight rating and a price target that suggests serious upside. For a company that’s been navigating the choppy waters of cross-border payments, this is more than just a pat on the back — it’s a signal that the market’s long-term narrative is shifting.

Let’s cut through the noise. Remitly isn’t some flash-in-the-pan fintech darling. It’s a digital remittance platform that’s been quietly eating market share from legacy players like Western Union and MoneyGram. The thesis from Cantor is straightforward: the global remittance market is massive, under-digitized, and Remitly is positioned to capture a disproportionate slice of the pie. We’re talking about a $700 billion addressable market, folks. And right now, only a fraction of that flows through digital channels.

The Cantor Fitzgerald Call: What’s the Thesis?

On March 27, 2025, Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Josh Siegler initiated coverage on Remitly with an Overweight rating and a price target of $28. That’s roughly 35% upside from where the stock was trading before the call hit the wires. Siegler’s argument? It’s a compounder. He sees Remitly as a platform that can sustain 20%+ revenue growth for the next several years, driven by market share gains in existing corridors and expansion into new ones.

“Remitly is executing well in a large, underpenetrated market,” Siegler wrote in a note to clients. “We believe the company can deliver strong revenue growth and margin expansion over the next three to five years, driven by its focus on customer acquisition and retention in high-volume corridors.”

That’s the kind of language that gets institutional money moving. And it’s not just hot air — the numbers back it up. Remitly reported 2024 revenue of $1.1 billion, up 35% year-over-year. Active customers hit 7.2 million, and the company processed over $45 billion in transaction volume. Those are real metrics, not PowerPoint projections.

Why Digital Remittances Are a Sleeping Giant

Here’s the thing about remittances: they’re recession-resistant. People send money home regardless of the economic cycle. The World Bank estimates that global remittance flows reached $860 billion in 2024, with low- and middle-income countries receiving about $680 billion of that. Yet digital channels still account for less than 20% of that volume. The rest? Cash, bank wires, and money transfer operators that charge fees that would make a hedge fund manager blush.

Remitly’s model is built on undercutting those legacy players. They charge an average fee of around 1.5% to 2%, compared to the 5% to 7% that traditional services often demand. That’s not just a nice-to-have — it’s a competitive moat. And it’s working. The company’s active customer base grew by 28% year-over-year in the most recent quarter, and revenue per customer is ticking up as users send more frequently and in larger amounts.

But here’s the kicker: the digital remittance market is still in its infancy. According to a report from the World Bank, only about 18% of global remittance flows are processed digitally. That leaves over $700 billion in annual flows that are still handled through cash or traditional channels. If Remitly can capture even a fraction of that shift, the revenue trajectory gets very interesting, very fast.

And it’s not just about sending money from the US to Mexico or the Philippines — though those are core corridors. Remitly has been expanding into Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. The company’s recent partnership with Visa Direct allows for near-instant payouts to debit cards in over 100 countries. That’s a game-changer for speed and convenience.

The Numbers Don’t Lie — But They’re Not Perfect

Let’s get granular. Remitly’s Q4 2024 earnings showed revenue of $305 million, up 32% year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $28 million, a margin of 9.2%. That’s solid, but it’s not yet at the level where the company is generating significant free cash flow. The market’s been forgiving on that front because the growth story is intact. But investors should keep an eye on customer acquisition costs — they’ve been creeping up as competition heats up from players like Wise (LON: WISE) and Zepz.

“Remitly’s unit economics are improving, but the path to sustained profitability requires scale,” says Maria Torres, a fintech analyst at Pulse Research Partners. “The company is investing heavily in marketing and product development, which is necessary to capture market share, but it also means that near-term margins will remain under pressure.”

That’s the trade-off. You want growth? You accept the margin compression. But Cantor’s thesis is that the operating leverage kicks in once Remitly hits a certain scale — think $2 billion in revenue — and then the margins expand rapidly. It’s a classic growth-at-a-reasonable-price (GARP) narrative, and it’s one that’s worked for companies like Shopify and MercadoLibre in their earlier days.

Meanwhile, the broader market for fintech stocks has been a mixed bag. The ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF) is down about 12% year-to-date, as rising interest rates have compressed valuations for high-growth names. But Remitly has held up relatively well, trading around $20.50 as of late March. That’s still well below its 2021 IPO price of $43, but the fundamentals are stronger now than they were back then. Revenue has more than doubled since the IPO, and the customer base has expanded by 60%.

For context, the broader tech sell-off has hit many high-growth names hard. If you’re looking for a parallel, check out our analysis on whether the ‘MANGOS’ stocks are already turning soft — it’s a similar story of growth vs. valuation tension.

What This Means for Investors

So, should you buy Remitly at these levels? Let’s break it down. The bull case is compelling: a massive addressable market, a product that’s genuinely better than the incumbents, and a management team that’s executing well. CEO Matt Oppenheimer has been at the helm since 2011, and he’s built a culture focused on customer trust and operational efficiency. The company’s net promoter score (NPS) is consistently above 60, which is stellar for a financial services firm.

But there are risks. The regulatory environment is getting tougher. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) has been cracking down on remittance fees and transparency, and any new rules could squeeze margins. Currency volatility is another factor — Remitty hedges its exposure, but it’s not immune to sharp moves in emerging market currencies. And then there’s the competition. Wise, which went public in London in 2021, has a similar model and a strong brand in Europe. Zepz (formerly WorldRemit) is also well-funded and aggressive.

“The digital remittance space is becoming a two-horse race between Remitly and Wise,” says David Chen, a portfolio manager at Horizon Capital Advisors. “Both have strong technology and customer bases, but Remitly’s focus on the US-to-Latin America corridor gives it a unique advantage. That’s the highest-volume corridor in the world, and Remitly has the best product there.”

Chen’s point is worth emphasizing. The US-Mexico corridor alone accounts for over $60 billion in annual flows. Remitly has a dominant position there, with a market share of roughly 8% and growing. If they can replicate that success in other corridors — say, US-to-India or Europe-to-Africa — the growth runway is enormous.

And let’s not forget the broader macro tailwind. Immigration flows into the US and Europe remain strong, and the global economy is increasingly interconnected. More people are working abroad and sending money home. That’s a structural trend that won’t reverse anytime soon. For a deeper dive on how tech-driven growth stories are playing out across sectors, take a look at our mid-year check-in on the AI trade that won’t quit — it’s a different sector, but the same growth-at-scale logic applies.

The Bottom Line

Cantor Fitzgerald’s call is a vote of confidence, but it’s not a guarantee. Remitly still needs to prove it can generate consistent free cash flow and navigate the regulatory minefield. The stock is priced for perfection in some ways, with a forward price-to-sales ratio of about 3.5x. That’s not cheap, but it’s not outrageous for a company growing revenue at 30%+.

For long-term investors, the key question is whether Remitly can become the dominant platform in digital remittances — the way PayPal became the default for online payments. It’s a high bar, but the pieces are in place. The company has the technology, the brand, and now, the Wall Street backing. The next few quarters will be critical. If Remitly can show accelerating customer growth and improving unit economics, the stock could have a lot more room to run.

But if the macro environment deteriorates or competition intensifies, that $28 price target might start looking like a mirage. Either way, it’s a story worth watching — and one that could define the next phase of fintech investing.