Gen Z Is Betting Against the State Pension—Here’s Their Plan

Here’s the uncomfortable truth that keeps financial advisors up at night: a majority of Gen Z in the US, UK, and Canada don’t believe they’ll ever see a state pension check. And they’re not just worrying—they’re acting on it.

According to a 2024 survey by the UK’s Resolution Foundation, nearly 60% of adults aged 18–27 expect no state pension in retirement. In the US, a 2023 Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies report found that 48% of millennials and Gen Z workers are “not at all confident” Social Security will be there for them. Canada’s numbers aren’t much better—a 2024 Statistics Canada survey revealed that 41% of those under 35 doubt the Canada Pension Plan will survive in its current form.

This isn’t just youthful pessimism. It’s a data-backed bet that demographics, debt, and political gridlock will break the system before they hit 67. And that bet is reshaping how an entire generation saves, spends, and plans for the future.

The Math That Scares Them

Let’s talk numbers. In the US, Social Security’s trust fund is projected to run dry by 2034, according to the Social Security Administration. After that, incoming payroll taxes would cover only about 77% of promised benefits. The UK’s state pension, meanwhile, costs the government over £110 billion annually—roughly 5% of GDP—and the Office for Budget Responsibility warns the cost will balloon as the population ages. Canada’s CPP is in better shape, with a 2023 actuarial report showing it sustainable for 75 years, but younger Canadians remain skeptical. “The generational contract is fraying,” says Dr. Elena Rivas, a retirement economist at the University of Toronto. “Young people see the math: fewer workers per retiree, higher life expectancy, and governments kicking the can down the road. They’re not wrong to be skeptical.”

And here’s the kicker—Gen Z has watched older generations get bailed out. They saw the 2008 bank bailouts, the 2020 stimulus checks, and the UK’s “triple lock” on state pensions that boosted payouts faster than wages. Meanwhile, their own student debt, housing costs, and inflation eat into savings. So they’ve decided: don’t count on the state. Count on yourself.

That’s driving a seismic shift in personal finance. Young people are piling into assets the state can’t touch: stocks, crypto, real estate, even alternative investments. A 2024 Charles Schwab survey found that 34% of Gen Z investors hold cryptocurrency, compared to just 12% of boomers. They’re also maxing out tax-advantaged accounts like Roth IRAs and UK Lifetime ISAs, which offer government bonuses but don’t rely on future pension systems. “Gen Z is doing something we haven’t seen before—they’re treating retirement as a DIY project,” says Marcus Webb, financial analyst and markets reporter for BullpenBrief. “They’ve internalized that the safety net is a myth, so they’re building their own trampoline.”

No State Pension? No Problem—Here’s the New Playbook

So what does a “no-pension” retirement plan actually look like? For many Gen Zers, it starts with aggressive saving in their 20s. The traditional advice—save 10-15% of income—is out. Instead, financial influencers on TikTok and Reddit’s r/PersonalFinance push “extreme savings” rates of 30-50%, often through side hustles like freelancing or gig economy work.

Take the FIRE movement—Financial Independence, Retire Early. Once a niche for tech workers, it’s gone mainstream among younger savers. A 2024 survey by Bankrate found that 22% of Gen Zers say they plan to retire before 60, compared to 14% of millennials. They’re cutting costs by living with parents (36% of 18–29-year-olds in the US, per Pew Research), buying used cars, and avoiding debt like the plague. But it’s not just about frugality. They’re also betting on assets that compound faster than inflation. Index funds, REITs, and even rental properties are favorites. Some are going further: a 2024 survey by Gallup showed that 18% of US adults under 30 now own individual stocks, up from 12% in 2020.

And then there’s the crypto angle—controversial, but real. Bitcoin and Ethereum are seen by some as a hedge against central bank money printing, which they fear will devalue future pension payments. “It’s not about getting rich quick,” says 26-year-old London-based software developer and crypto investor Amir Khan. “It’s about having something that the government can’t inflate away. I’d rather take the volatility risk than assume the state will keep its promises.”

But here’s the rub: if everyone stops counting on the state pension, it could become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Lower political pressure to fix the system means less reform. And without that safety net, even the best DIY plans can fail—especially after a market crash or personal disaster. “Young people are right to be skeptical, but they’re also taking on enormous risk,” warns Sarah Jenkins, a certified financial planner based in New York. “If a recession hits in their 40s, they may not have time to recover. The state pension, flawed as it is, provides a floor. Abandoning it entirely is dangerous.”

The Political Wildcard—Can the System Be Saved?

Governments aren’t ignoring the crisis. In the US, the Social Security 2100 Act—which would raise payroll taxes on high earners and increase benefits—has been introduced but hasn’t passed. The UK’s Department for Work and Pensions is reviewing the state pension age, currently 66, with a potential rise to 68 by 2037. Canada increased CPP contributions in 2019 to strengthen the fund. But none of these fixes address the core issue: a system designed when lifespans were shorter and birth rates higher.

Meanwhile, Gen Z is voting with their wallets. A 2024 Pew Research study found that 71% of US adults under 30 say they’re “unlikely” to rely on Social Security. That distrust extends to other institutions, too—including big corporations. Earlier this year, we covered Australia suing Amazon over unfair Prime contracts—a case that underscores how younger consumers are scrutinizing every financial promise, from pensions to subscription services. Even tech companies aren’t immune: WhatsApp ditching phone numbers for usernames is part of a broader privacy push where young users demand control over their digital lives—just like their money.

So what happens next? If Gen Z’s bet pays off, they’ll retire comfortably without a state check. If it doesn’t—if markets tank, inflation spikes, or their crypto holdings crater—they’ll face a retirement far worse than their parents’. The state pension might still exist, but it’ll be stretched thin by then.

One thing’s certain: the conversation has shifted. We’re no longer debating whether the state pension will survive. We’re debating what replaces it. And Gen Z is already building that replacement—one index fund, one Bitcoin wallet, one side hustle at a time. The question for policymakers is whether they help build it, or get left behind.