54 scheduled token unlocks above 2% of circulating supply hit in Q4 2026, worth $0.88B. Monad’s November 24 cliff is 55% of the total. For unlocks that large, past data shows the selling comes in the 30 days before the date.
We checked the public commit history of 217 DeFi protocols holding at least $1 million. 44.2% have not pushed code in 90 days and a quarter have been silent over a year, but the silent ones hold only 2.4% of the money.
We tracked every episode of a DeFi pool paying above 20% since 2022. The median high yield lasts nine days, only 14.6% survive a month, and emission yields outlast fee yields rather than the other way round.
We measured 5,664 cliff token unlocks against 4,678 placebo windows on the same tokens. An unlock costs about 2 points over 30 days, the first week is indistinguishable from normal, and unlocks above 10% of supply do no extra damage at all.
We checked all 1,215 tracked crypto hacks: $20.65B stolen, only $2.36B returned. Just 2% of incidents saw any refund, five incidents are a third of all losses, and the leading cause flips when one 2020 breach is removed.
We matched SEC EDGAR full-text search against XBRL balance-sheet data: 456 filings mention bitcoin in 2026, but only 48 operating companies report crypto as an asset. Median holding $7.5M; the top five hold 71% of the $7.0B total.
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